OBSERVATIONS

On economic and financial topics from a Christian perspective ___________________________________________________________________ __No._2___________________________________________Fall,_1990_A.D.__

The Nature of the Nineties

As we enter the decade of the nineties, we should pause and reflect on the conditions and trends that are likely to affect us during the decade and how the Church should respond to these condi- tions.

The situation in Eastern Europe seems on almost everyone's mind (or at least was until overshadowed by the Mideast crisis). It is fascinating to try to figure out the origins and effects of these fast-moving events. I tend toward the "it began as a subterfuge and got out of hand" view of the origins. That is, the economic condi- tion of the Soviet Empire made it necessary for them to get more help from the West. Appearing to loosen their hold on Eastern Europe would make this easier, especially for the Eastern satel- lites. (One defector from the Soviet intelligence service predicted some years ago such a ploy, including a presumably liberal leader in the Soviet Union). The loosening led to genuine popular uprisings which have gone beyond what the Soviets planned. I don't think we should overlook the hand of God in the events. The secular media has largely overlooked the role of prayer and Christians, but it is significant.

In any case, we're likely to feel effects throughout the nine- ties in ways we could not have anticipated a year or two ago. The talk about "capitalism" and "free markets" coming to Eastern Europe bothers me - much too optimistic, I think. There seems to be clear evidence at least in Poland that most everyone in leadership is a socialist (and just renamed Communists in Bulgaria and Romania). People forget that being anti-communist doesn't automatically make one a capitalist. In any case, we're being asked to bail out failed socialist economies. The initial effect may seem beneficial to our economy with an increase in exports to the area. The long-run economic effect will be no more favorable than the loans and aid to the Third World.

The threat of nuclear war seems to have declined, although there has as yet been no real reduction in the Soviet's military capability. Actually, I've tended to believe for a long time that the Soviet Union couldn't afford to nuke us. I think that is even more true now - who else would bail them out if they destroyed our economy? In fact, the Soviet strategy seems to have been to win World War III without a nuclear exchange by gaining control of key points such as the Middle East, Southern Africa, and Central Ameri- ca. Exacting tribute from a productive economy would have been more to Soviet liking than presiding over nuclear devastation. Recent events have set back their ambitions in this regard, at least for the time being, though any renewed success in this strategy would have implications not only for our economic well-being but for our political and religious life as well.

The recent Mideast crisis reminds us that international con- flict short of a full scale general war seems almost certain to be a continued feature of the nineties. With our dependence on foreign oil and other strategic resources, the U. S. economy is quite vul- nerable.

We need to consider the domestic picture as well. Here we can see a continued race between the economic benefits of advances in technology and the numerous unsolved problems. In the eighties strides in technology, together with some reforms in government policy, kept the economy ahead of the problems, at least in terms of aggregate measures. The unusually long cyclical expansion in the economy also helped keep the problems from overwhelming us. Will these favorable factors continue to shield us in the nineties? We need to at least examine the problems.

We can see as a likely possibility the continuation in the nineties of the long trend of deterioration in the infrastructure and social fabric in modern day America. The deteriorating infra- structure has received attention off and on over the past decade, including a Congressional study commission. It is likely to be an even more significant problem in the nineties. "Infrastructure" means roads, water mains, sewer lines, etc. - the basic physical elements on which our economy (indeed, civilization), rests. Our roads aren't as well built as Rome's and don't last as long. Col- lapses of bridges #are still reported only occasionally in the news, but according to one expert "most of the nation's bridges are plain worn out." Repairs, maintenance, and reconstruction haven't kept up with the need. Spending on public works has declined in terms of real dollars and as a proportion of GNP over the past 20-25 years. I was reminded as I was writing the original draft of this essay that this is not just a problem of the cities. A news report said that most of the bridges in Nacogdoches county need major repairs or replacement.

It is not just in the physical realm that we see a deteriora- tion. It is in our cultural, educational, and value systems as well. The problems of society are still gnawing away at the under- pinnings of our economy. A continued decline of moral values will adversely our society and economy. Every social and economic system has a moral basis. Its maintenance is especially important for the well-being of even a semi-capitalistic system such as ours. (We often forget that Adam Smith was a Professor of Moral Philosophy). Many of our existing economic problems have their roots in the decay of virtue.

Of course, it is not just the economic effects of this deterio- ration that concern us, though they tend to be overlooked. The increased violence in our society, the pressures that tear at the fabric of our family life, and the cultural climate that militates against morality hardly need pointing out. These trends already buffet the Church.

Our financial system is still fragile. The savings and loan mess has captured the headlines, but many banks are in poor shape too. Even our insurance companies are not always the bastions of strength we expect. Some of them have excessive holdings of junk bonds among other problems. As we head into the next recession the financial system will be subject to strains it is not well prepared to handle. (OBSERVATIONS #1 was on preparing for recession - write for a copy if you didn't receive one). In the eighties we had only one recession, early in the decade. This was unusual and we are not likely to be so fortunate in the nineties.

We should not ignore inflation as a threat. In spite of the complacency of the past several years, it has not disappeared even though the rates were lower than in the '70s and early '80s. Nei- ther should we completely discount the possibility of depression even though The Depression of 1990 (the title of a best selling book) hasn't materialized.

Some economists say that we could actually have a depression - that is, a substantial drastic decline in economic activity - at the same time that we had high inflation. The economy could be going down in real terms, but measures of it in dollar terms still be increasing because the value of the dollar was dropping so rapidly. Thus depression with inflation is not necessarily a contradiction.

Our health system will be another concern in the nineties. New drugs and other technological advances get the publicity, but the AIDS epidemic has not gone away and health costs continue to esca- late rapidly. A real crisis in health care could occur. (A future issue of OBSERVATIONS will deal with the implications for Christians of the health care crisis).

As the decade passes and the year 2000 approaches, "millennium fever" is likely to grow, spawning all sorts of groups, with New Age sects at the forefront. Coupled with serious economic problems, some of these could pose more serious threats to our freedoms than communism. (Remember that Hitler was leader of a minor fringe group ten years before he took power in Germany.) Christians need espe- cially to understand the growing influence of the New Age movement. (The Spiritual Counterfeits Project, P.O.Box 4308, Berkeley, CA 94704, is a good source of materials on it from a Christian perspec- tive).

As we consider the nineties, we see that we are still facing turbulent times. We don't like to think about problems or the possibility of bad times. Nevertheless, the recognition of poten- tial problems is an important starting point for determining the Church's response to the nature of the nineties. Accompanying the problems is a growing spiritual hunger as people recognize that even years of material prosperity didn't satisfy them and the secular system offers no real solutions to the mounting problems.

What should the Church do to respond to the particular problems of our times? Not much that is different from what the Church ought to do in other times. The major difference is the urgency of the Church doing what it should and the increasingly serious conse- quences of not doing so. If the Church does not provide people the solutions they need, they will be prey to all sorts of forces lead- ing to their destruction.

The most important thing that the Church can do to respond to the times that we live in is to recognize that it is the Body of Jesus. It is not buildings, it is not programs, it is the Body of Jesus. It is not the Kiwanis Club, it is not the Rotary Club, it is the Body of Jesus. It is not the Red Cross, it is not the United Fund, it is the Body of Jesus.

What does it mean for the Church to be the Body of Jesus? Jesus wants His Body to be holy, to be blameless, to be pure and spotless, to be set apart for God. He wants it to be in the world but not of the world just as He was in the world but not of the world. It can no longer tolerate sin or pass it off with "everyone's doing it" or "things are different now". The preaching of love and forgiveness is vital. Yet we cannot forget that the Jesus who said "your sins are forgiven" was the same Jesus who said "go and sin no more". How awful that the Church forgot that judg- ment begins with the household of God! Let us pray that God grant us repentance so that the scandals of recent years not be repeated in the nineties.

The Church as the Body of Jesus must recognize who is its head. It is not the pastor, nor the elders, the Pope, or the general conference who is the head. It is Jesus. Jesus as the head has instructions for, has a will for His Body. If the Church will be open to that, He will direct us in what He wants us to do. It implies further that our churches should see that Jesus is Lord. He is King. He is the one who should rule, not only in our personal lives, but in our church bodies as well. #How it hurts to read of pastors who fear going to fellow pastors or church authorities for help with their problems because it may be used against them in a political way. If the church does not repent of its politicaliza- tion, how can it meet the challenges of the nineties?

Not only within the Church should we accept Jesus as Lord and follow Him as head, but we must proclaim Him to the world as Lord. Even when times look the gloomiest, He is still Lord; even when everything may be falling apart, He is still Lord. If we proclaim that, if we hold that up, it will give people a refuge. It will give them a place to come and give them support to help them get through turbulent times. The nineties offer tremendous opportuni- ties for evangelism. Many groups have adopted a goal of a majority of the world being Christian by the year 2000. (AD 2000 Together, 237 N. Michigan St., South Bend, IN 46601, is a focal point for many of these efforts).

Another important element is the building of relationships, bringing our people to a commitment not only to Jesus, but also to each other. This is a concept that is foreign to our present day churches for the most part. But in the early church they were committed not only to Jesus, but to each other. This is a necessity in order for the Church to successfully face turbulent times. It is necessary to build relationships among our people, to build commit- ment among them, in order to provide encouragement, to provide support, so that they be knit and joined together to function as the Body.

Individuals and families also need to be taught to be prepared for the disruptions of daily life which can be an outcome of the general problems of the nineties. One resource for this, which emphasizes the practical aspects of preparation, is Dealing with Turbulent Times by the editor of OBSERVATIONS. (This booklet is available for $3.75 from Individual Investors Institute, Box 4630 SFA Sta., Nacogdoches, TX 75962). Another resource, which empha- sizes becoming the kind of people who can cope with such times, is The Resourceful Christian by Kerry Koller. (If not available from your local Christian bookstore or other usual source, it can be ordered from Tidings for $4.50).

In turbulent times there is also a greater need to recognize the unity of the Body, to recognize that it's not just this group, or that denomination that is the Church. The Church as the Body of Christ must be a unified body, not necessarily in some explicit structural sense, but in a way more than some mystical idea that the Body is one. It must have some practical implications. We must learn to work together as members of different groups to be the Body.

One of the things that scripture tells us is that, as a ful- fillment of prophecy, not a bone of Jesus' body was broken when He was crucified. His body wasn't broken by the Romans when they crucified Him, but it is broken today by Christians. What anguish that must cause Him! How we should strive to heal it, to overcome it, to build the actual, practical unity that will enable the Church to truly function as His body.

The nineties may well be the most tumultuous period faced by the Church in centuries. However, if the Church will function as the body of Christ with Jesus as truly its head, it can be the most glorious period as God's power works through it.

OBSERVATIONS newsletter is published from time to time by Tidings, P.O. Box 4632, SFA Station, Nacogdoches, TX 75962. Reynolds Griffith, editor. If you would like to be sure of receiving future issues of OBSERVATIONS, please complete the form below. If you are an editor, feel free to mention in your publication that OBSERVATIONS is available on request.

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